Executive Summary

Q3 2025 delivered mixed but resilient results: adjusted EPS of $2.78 beat S&P consensus while revenue modestly missed; management raised Q4 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.00–$3.50, citing a “meaningful” YoY TRASM improvement and the highest revenue quarter in company history ahead .
Key positives: cost discipline (CASM-ex down 0.9% YoY), premium mix (premium revenue +6% YoY), and loyalty (+9% YoY) offset TRASM pressure (-4.3% YoY) on 7.2% capacity growth .
Management emphasized United’s brand-loyal strategy and technology-driven efficiency to de-commoditize demand and expand margins; they aim to add “at least a point” of margin per year and see potential to double loyalty EBITDA by decade-end .
Stock catalysts: Q4 guide above expectations, visible unit revenue inflection into Q4, accelerating premium initiatives (Starlink rollout), and deleveraging progress (net leverage 2.1x) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Brand-loyal strategy underpinning resilience: “Our ability to grow earnings in the face of macro issues is proof that the brand-loyal UnitedNext strategy is resilient…on our path to solid double-digit margins” — CEO Scott Kirby .
- Premium and loyalty engines: premium revenue +6% YoY; loyalty revenue +9% YoY; co-brand remuneration +15% YoY with higher spend and retention .
- Cost and operations: CASM-ex down 0.9% YoY; technology tools (e.g., iPads for maintenance, Orca IROPS optimizer) and management headcount down 4% YoY supported cost performance; Q3 had the highest third‑quarter completion factor in company history .
What Went Wrong
- Unit revenue pressure: TRASM -4.3% YoY on a 7.2% capacity increase; PRASM -5.0% YoY; softness concentrated in Q3 seasonality and select markets .
- Latin America underperformance: revenue/pricing pressure driven by elevated competitive capacity in Mexico/Central America; management plans to pull non-core underperforming flying and expects sequential improvement in Q4 .
- Newark event and timing issues: Newark disruption earlier in the year and one point of maintenance expense timing into Q4 weighed on Q3; share recaptured over the quarter but at lower yields initially .

Financial Results

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($B)	$13.21	$15.24	$15.23
Revenue Consensus Mean ($B)*	$13.18*	$15.34*	$15.29*
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.91	$3.87	$2.78
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)*	$0.74*	$3.81*	$2.68*
Adjusted EBITDA ($B)	$1.26	$2.55	$2.08
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($B)*	$1.28*	$2.71*	$2.05*
Pre-tax Margin (GAAP, %)	3.6%	8.2%	8.2%
Pre-tax Margin (Adj., %)	3.0%	11.0%	8.0%
Revenue YoY (%)	5.4%	1.7%	2.6%

Notes: Consensus figures marked with * are S&P Global values; see disclaimer in “Estimates Context.”

Q3 vs estimates: Adj. EPS beat ($2.78 vs $2.68*) while revenue slightly missed ($15.23B vs $15.29B*); adjusted EBITDA modestly beat ($2.08B vs $2.05B*) .

KPI/Unit Economics

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
TRASM (cents)	17.58	18.06	17.42
CASM-ex (cents)	13.17	12.36	12.15
Average Fuel Price ($/gal)	$2.53	$2.34	$2.43
Load Factor (%)	79.2%	83.1%	84.4%
ASMs (mm)	75,155	84,347	87,417
Passengers (000s)	40,806	46,186	48,382

Passenger revenue mix (Q3 2025)

Region	Revenue ($B)	PRASM YoY	Yield YoY	ASMs YoY
Domestic	$8.10	(3.3%)	(2.2%)	6.6%
International (Total)	$5.72	(7.1%)	(6.3%)	7.9%
Europe	$2.93	(7.3%)	(6.0%)	6.5%
Middle East/India/Africa	$0.35	6.1%	4.5%	23.3%
Pacific	$1.36	(3.9%)	(5.1%)	5.9%
Latin America	$1.08	(13.5%)	(10.7%)	10.1%

Non-GAAP adjustments in Q3: special charges (credits) included $73M net gains (primarily aircraft sale-leasebacks), which reduce GAAP EPS to the adjusted basis used for consensus comparison .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted Diluted EPS	Q4 2025	n/a	$3.00–$3.50	New
Profit Sharing Accrual	Q4 2025	n/a	$250–$300M	New
Adjusted Diluted EPS	FY 2025	$9.00–$11.00 (as of Q2 update)	“Trending toward the better half of the $9–$11 range” (commentary)	Maintained; bias higher
EWR Impact to Adj. Pre-tax Margin	Q4 2025	~0.0 point (as of Q2 update)	Not updated in Q3 materials	Maintained

Fleet outlook nuance: YE 2025 mainline fleet plan increased to 1,065 (from 1,058 in July), reflecting improved narrowbody deliveries; total MAX/A321neo/XLR counts updated accordingly .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Brand loyalty / de-commoditization	United to remove 4 pts domestic capacity starting Q3 to protect margins; brand-loyal strategy seen as resilient .	Strategy credited for resilient earnings through macro volatility; path to double-digit margins .	Strengthening
Premium mix and loyalty	Premium +5.6% YoY; loyalty +8.7% YoY in Q2 .	Premium +6% YoY; loyalty +9% YoY; co-brand remuneration +15% YoY .	Improving
TRASM seasonality & Q4 inflection	Q2 TRASM -4.0% YoY .	Q3 TRASM -4.3% YoY, but bookings inflected in July; Q4 TRASM to “meaningfully improve” .	Improving into Q4
Newark operations	EWR performance led NYC peers in June .	Best-ever Q3 completion; EWR capped at 72 ops/hr through Oct-26 .	Stable/Improving
Latin America performance	n/a	Underperformed; competitive capacity in MX/CAM; trimming non-core flying; expect Q4 sequential improvement .	Under review
Tech/AI to lower CASM	Digital adoption and operations tech highlighted in Q1 .	CASM-ex -0.9% YoY; iPads for maintenance, Orca IROPS optimizer; mgmt headcount -4% .	Ongoing
Starlink rollout	FAA mainline STC Sep-26; >50% of regional jets equipped .	First Starlink-equipped 737-800 launched Oct-15; NPS “off the charts” .	Accelerating
Regulatory: Russian overflights	n/a	U.S. carriers at disadvantage; calls for level playing field incl. Hong Kong .	Ongoing
Loyalty EBITDA	n/a	Target to double loyalty EBITDA by decade-end; details to come .	Strategic focus

Management Commentary

Strategic focus and resilience: “We delivered strong third-quarter results…our ability to grow earnings in the face of macro issues is proof that the brand-loyal UnitedNext strategy is resilient…path to solid double-digit margins” — Scott Kirby .
Cost discipline via technology: “Our third-quarter CASM-X was down 0.9%...examples include iPads for maintenance...and our Orca tool…Our management headcount is 4% lower than last year” — Mike Leskinen .
Premium/yield dynamics: “Premium cabins outperformed…TRASM for premium cabins outperformed the main cabin by five points…United had the company’s all-time highest business revenue ticketing the week ending Oct 5” — Andrew Nocella .
Q3 seasonality pivot: “In 2026 we’ll…end the summer schedule a week early, operate 15% fewer red-eyes, and cut more capacity from July 4th…pursuit of higher margins” — Andrew Nocella .
Starlink as differentiator: “Our first 737‑800 took off…with dramatically higher NPS scores…one of the biggest things we’ve done in a really long time” — Management .

Q&A Highlights

Premium leisure vs corporate yields: Premium leisure quality often exceeds traditional corporate in domestic; corporate remains higher on long-haul; United will lean further into premium capacity in 2026 .
Latin America strategy: Management acknowledged underperformance; expects the largest sequential improvement in Q4, trimming non-core non‑Houston flying; holding ground in Houston .
Costs/maintenance timing: ~1 point of maintenance shifted from Q3 to Q4; no accrual for flight attendants until ratification (target early 2026); CASM-X framework of +2–3% run-rate over multi-year .
Q4 unit revenue and bookings: Booked a couple points ahead into Q4 (intentionally, with some yield trade-off); expects international TRASM to outperform domestic in Q4 .
Loyalty economics: Target to double loyalty EBITDA by decade-end; details to come; co-brand remuneration strong .

Estimates Context

Q3 vs S&P Global consensus: Adjusted EPS beat ($2.78 vs $2.68*), adjusted EBITDA beat (~$2.08B vs ~~$2.05B*), revenue slight miss (~~$15.23B vs ~$15.29B*) . Management said EPS was “ahead of Wall Street expectations of $2.68” .
Prior quarters: Q2 adjusted EPS beat ($3.87 vs $3.81*) and revenue slight miss ($15.24B vs $15.34B*); Q1 adjusted EPS beat ($0.91 vs $0.74*) and revenue slight beat ($13.21B vs $13.18B*) .

Consensus metrics marked with * are Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q4 guide sets a constructive near-term setup: $3.00–$3.50 adjusted EPS and “meaningful” TRASM improvement point to a positive revenue mix/seasonality pivot into year-end .
The brand-loyal strategy is translating into resilience and relative margin strength; premium and loyalty drivers continue to outgrow the system .
Expect medium-term margin expansion from schedule/seasonality changes (de-peaking Q3), premium upgauging, and tech-enabled cost efficiencies (CASM-ex discipline) .
Watch Latin America: management is pruning underperforming capacity and expects sequential improvement; execution here is a key proof point for 2026 margin plans .
Starlink is an underappreciated product differentiator likely to support NPS, premium uptake, and connected media monetization as installations scale through 2027 .
Balance sheet is improving (net leverage 2.1x; repayment of MileagePlus bonds), enabling opportunistic buybacks while targeting investment-grade over time .
Risk watchlist: macro/ATC/government shutdown exposure is acknowledged in Q4 guidance range; continued capacity rationalization by industry is a tailwind to margins if sustained .

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary